Copenhagen & beyond: where now for the EU?

The EU was marginalized amid the realpolitik which dominated at Copenhagen. As a consequence the Copenhagen Accord neither conceptually nor substantively reflected the EU’s negotiating position.

In a recent policy brief (available here) I argue that this failure must lead to a reevaluation of its modus operandi at international negotiations. This is particularly true if Europe wishes to match its rhetoric of leadership on climate protection with real influence.

The extent of the EU’s failure an be gauged from both the extent to which the Copenhagen Accord fell short of the Danish Text which was leaked at the start of the talks, and by the reaction of EU leaders to the Accord. Continue reading →

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Pachauri should go?

Claims that Himalayan glaciers would have melted by 2035, and that there would be a rise in hurricanes, typhoons and other extreme weather events were never properly peer reviewed before inclusion in the IPCC’s reports.

So-called ‘grey’ literature was used in contravention of the IPPC’s own rules. While the claims are not central, they were high-profile. Agencies linked to IPCC chair Pachauri obtained funding using these claims. Yesterday Charles Clover (author of ‘The End of The Line‘, an investigation into overfishing) called on Pachauri to go (see below). Today there are more reports of monies obtained on foot of wrong material. Continue reading →

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OMG, what if the deniers are actually right?

Fat chance, of course, that the climate change deniers/liars from the assorted propaganda factories will, in the end, miraculously turn out to know more about climate science than, well, all of climate science. But hey, when we’re told that natural disasters like flooding can “boost the economy” (wow, lucky old Haiti, then?) we have to admit that anything is, in theory at least, possible.

In that spirit, here’s a cartoon of the nightmare scenario that might unfold should the whole thing turn out to be, speak it softly, a big ol’ h-o-a-x…..

big hoax cartoon

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Reporting our changing world

I nearly missed the report below. In yesterday’s the Irish Times the near one-third rise in arctic methane emissions wasn’t reported in world news; rather it was on the bulletin page, a fine page – no quibbles here – but a page dominated by weather forecasting, the crossword, chess and cartoons, and, simply put, not the world news pages. Could a 31 per cent in methane emissions in the arctic between 2003 and 2007 be world news?

It’s not the first time. I did a quick check back, just honing in on late 2008, and found some similar instances. Continue reading →

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Plimer vs Monbiot

From the website of Australian TV network ABC. Click here to view the debate.

Transcript

TONY JONES, PRESENTER: Here is some background notes to tonight’s debate. When Professor Ian Plimer’s outright denial of man-made global warming was championed in the UK Spectator magazine earlier this year after the publication of his book Heaven and Earth in Britain, the magazine’s editor promoted the idea of a great public debate in London between Professor Plimer and the Guardian’s George Monbiot. Monbiot is a renowned champion of climate science. In the end, George Monbiot’s key condition for the debate, that Professor Plimer first answer in writing a series of questions about claims in his book was not met, the debate was cancelled. And tonight, with no preconditions, George Monbiot joins us in Copenhagen and Ian Plimer is here in our Sydney studio.

Thanks to both of you for being there. Continue reading →

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Repeat after me: Weather is NOT climate!

Oh dear, here we go again. An editorial in the Irish Times yesterday was headlined ‘Global cooling’. It began: “So much for all of that guff about global warming! Are world leaders having the wrong debate? We are experiencing the most prolonged period of icy weather in 40 years and feeling every bit of it”.

In fact, what the above piece illustrates is the hazards of conducting climate science by looking out the window. The good ol’ Daily Express took it a degree or three further yesterday in its screeching front page headline: ‘SNOW CHAOS – And they still claim it’s global warming’.

I could spend another thousand words trying Online Pokies to unpick this silliness, or instead hand over to the excellent Peter Sinclair, who runs an intriguing YouTube channel called ‘Climate Denial Crock of the Week’. The clip below is from Feb 2009, but it perfectly illustrates the recurring problem that as soon as the temperatures plummet, the deniers start banging loudly on their tin drums, and many folks in the media who really ought to know better, just take a peek out through the net curtains, see the snow and experience an almost instantaneous 50-point drop in their IQs.

Over to you, Peter…

An archive of Peter Sinclair’s excellent series can be accessed by clicking here.

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Copenhagen a new framework for climate chaos?

The original intention of Conference of Parties (COP) 15 in Copenhagen was to complete negotiations on a new international agreement on climate change to come into force before 2012. What emerged was a slim three page Copenhagen Accord with a couple of blank appendices.

To the dismay of many EU countries, not even this rather watery three page Accord managed to secure the unanimous approval of the COP. A handful of countries, including Sudan and Saudi Arabia, refused to sign, and the COP thus only succeeded in “taking note” of its contents.

Legally it remains unclear how a non-binding Accord will function. “Takes note of” according to Yvo de Boer, head of the UNFCCC, “is a way of recognizing what is there without going so far as to directly associate yourself with it”. Continue reading →

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Time for prosperity without growth

If there’s one book you read this winter make it Tim Jackson’s Prosperity without Growth. We can have a stable climate and leave enough resources for future generations. Or we can continue with the fantasy of perpetual economic growth, with all the additional consumption that it entails – but we can’t have both.

That’s Jackson’s central message. In environmental and resource terms, endless economic growth is a slow but sure collective suicide pill. In economic terms it doesn’t work either. Jackson builds up the picture of how global economies were wound into financial freefall in September 2008. The 1980s and 1990s saw the paying down of a large amount of public debt only to be replaced by even greater private debt. Lending rules were deliberately eased in the US to squeeze out a bit more economic growth: contrary to what you might have gathered from other media sources, it was no regulatory bungle, at least in the US. Continue reading →

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Greens Flavor of the Day in Domestic Climate Policy

Amid the white noise surrounding last week’s budget, the government made a number of announcements with potentially profound and long-term implications for Irish climate policy. Much as the PD’s allegedly provided the sauce in the meaty Fianna Fail coalition sandwich, it seems that the Greens are now flavor of the day.

The introduction of a carbon tax attracted most comment. A level of €15 per tonne of carbon was chosen. According to Finance Minister, Brian Lenihan: “The yield from the Carbon Tax will be used to boost energy efficiency, to support rural transport and to alleviate fuel poverty. The Carbon Tax will also allow us to maintain or reduce payroll taxes”. Continue reading →

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Latest recruit to Confederacy of Climate Dunces

One by one, they’re coming out of the woodwork. Occasional climate sceptic William Reville was the latest to re-surface, this time in his weekly Irish Times column. I read it with dismay; I genuinely have no problem with him having a personal pop at me (all’s fair in the public domain) but his cynical piece, masquerading as an honest scientific review of the so-called ClimateGate deserved to be properly dissected and shown for what it is.

I am indebted to writer Marco Chiappi for the article below, which both deconstructs and eviscerates Reville’s contribution:

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Professor Reville (Associate Professor of biochemistry and public awareness of science officer, UCC) in his article published 10/12/2009 characterises the debate surrounding anthropogenic global warming as a debate between a ‘majority’ and a ‘minority’ position and regrets the incivility with which both sides engage. Continue reading →

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Leaks no Impact on Copenhagen Blueprint

The leaking of hacked emails from one of the most highly regarded climate research units was perfectly timed to coincide with the start of the Copenhagen COP. Without entering into the minute details of just what was or was not exposed by the thousands of leaked emails, it is clear the credibility of one of the world’s most respected institutions of climate science has been undermined.

In a sense this is a reality check for anyone who tend to the view that Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is the greatest threat facing humanity. It poses an important question: is the science behind climate change now more open to question as a result? Continue reading →

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15 Reasons to be (Mildly) Optimistic about COP15

As the Copenhagen conference progresses, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a brief look what’s the various different countries have offered, and reasons why there is some room for optimism about a decent deal being done…

1. The US seems prepared to act, if necessary by bypassing Congress and the Senate. The formal declaration by the US EPA that CO2 (along with other greenhouse gases) is an ‘endangering pollutant‘ means that the EPA can now use it’s powers under the existing Clean Air Act to regulate CO2 as failure to act would “threaten the public health and welfare of the American people”.  It appears that if the Senate doesn’t pass the legislation currently before it the EPA will simply regulate greenhouse gases under existing laws instead. The current proposed cut from the US is approximately 17% by 2020 on 2005 levels. Although not ideal, this proposed cut is a dramatic improvement on earlier obstructionism from the US. Continue reading →

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Planning for the 21st Century: More Than Permission to Build

Planning as a concept has become synonymous with “permission to build” in this country. As in: “I got ‘the planning’ for the apartments on the flood-plain at the outer-rim of the commuter belt”. The original meaning – taking a strategic approach to the future – is as common to these shores it seems as cautious property development.

Nevertheless, one can only learn from past mistakes.

One thing we know for sure, irrespective of the outcome of Copenhagen, is that Ireland is legally bound to reduce its “domestic sector” emissions 20% on 2005 levels by 2020. Not only is this the most onerous target among EU countries – our high GDP per capita at the time saw to that – it will rise to 30% if an international agreement is reached in Copenhagen (or subsequently) which demands comparable efforts from other developed countries. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming, Irish Focus, Sustainability | 7 Comments

A sceptic on the couch

I’ve had my say on KennyGate, as have a good many other people (to my new cadre of hate-mailers, sorry for not posting all your anonymous spleen. Life’s a bitch, eh? Give my regards to Elvis). Meanwhile, a regular correspondent, Coilin MacLochlainn, sent in a highly original take , which I hope you’ll enjoy as much as I did. Over to you, Coilin…

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Let’s imagine that Pat Kenny is feeling a bit off colour and decides to visit a psychoanalyst.

Dr Thelme Datruth-Y’Boyo is a bright young thing from Darfur who happens to read a certain column that appears in the Irish Times every Thursday. Her parents and siblings are starving because of drought brought on by climate change and the resulting war in Darfur. She gives John O’Shea of GOAL most of her savings but knows that the war won’t end until the real problem, climate change, is tackled. Continue reading →

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John The Apostle Walks The Plank

Hell, it seems, hath no fury like a broadcaster scorned. After my recent adventures with RTE’s Pat Kenny, it was only a matter of time before the veteran broadcaster would try to even the score for what he no doubt perceived as slights to the notion that he is capable of being unbiased, objective and responsible on the issue of climate change.

The COP15 gig commences next Monday in Copenhagen, with the great and the good from science, politics and policymaking gathering from the five continents for the world’s most important climate conference since the Rio Summit in 1992. Pat Kenny’s parody of pre-Copenhagen “coverage” involved bringing on a discredited Australian mining industry hack on as an “expert” to challenge the dreadful scientific consensus that Kenny, in the great tradition of Don Quixote, is determined to unseat.

Click here to listen to the Pat Kenny/Plimer/Gibbons “debate” 2-12-09 Continue reading →

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