Next stop: make up our mind time

Posted on May 31, 2010 by James Nix

In the last post Paddy Morris noted that we need a vision and implementation strategy along the lines of the Marshall Plan to shield us from the worst of the energy and climate crises.

He’s right. Avoiding oil consumption and carbon dioxide emissions would then guide our investments. Paddy’s post, and John’s before it, sent me looking through my notes on the biggest single transport investment proposal ever put forward in Ireland – Metro North.

Does energy or climate get a look in?

An Bord Pleanala is due to give its decision towards the end of the July. The planning appeals board held almost 40 days of hearings into Metro North earlier this year and in late 2009. Continue reading →

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Peak oil – what happens next?

Posted on May 28, 2010 by John Gibbons

Wednesday night last saw an interesting session to kick off several days of the 15th Convergence Sustainable Living Festival, organised by Cultivate.

The two-hour session was entitled: ‘Planning our retreat from fossil fuels: exploring the ramifications of Peak Oil’ and featured a panel of three speakers, David Korowicz of Feasta (and author earlier this year of the jaw-dropping report, ‘Tipping Point‘), Richard O’Rourke, director of the Irish branch of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and Green Minister of State, Ciaran Cuffe. Continue reading →

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Notes from a conference: ‘The need for road research’

Posted on May 21, 2010 by James Nix

There was a seminar yesterday morning jointly organised by TCD + UCD titled “The need for road research”, and held in Foster Place.

Overall, it was biased in favour of transport by private vehicle with insufficient recognition of the capability and future role of simple and cost effective solutions, namely cycling, walking, and public transport. Indeed references to walking, cycling and public transport – when they did come – came largely from the floor, or prompted by questions from the floor. Continue reading →

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Sobering Questions from the Island Mountain

Posted on May 16, 2010 by Tony Kinsella

Most media attention on the eruption of the volcano under Eyjafjallajökull (or the island-mountain glacier in Icelandic) has understandably focused on how its ash plume plays havoc with modern air transport. The deeper lessons, including evidence of yet another extinct species, have hardly featured – perhaps because they offer a highly unflattering image of our societies.

Volcanic ash and modern aircraft engines, either jet or turbo-propellor, do not mix well. The negative effects vary in function of the composition of the ash, which in turn depends on the nature of the eruption. Volcanic ash is less disastrous for piston-engined aircraft but such engines are now only used to power light aircraft. Continue reading →

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Can industrial civilisation and the biosphere both be saved?

Posted on May 11, 2010 by John Gibbons

Even when you don’t agree with him, Monbiot remains essential reading. Whether you regard the Dark Mountain Project as a bunch of dystopian doomers, or simply realists probably depends on how you feel about peak oil (in the shorter term) and (in the medium term) just exactly what might happen when we do indeed succeed in doubling concentrations of atmospheric CO2 from their pre-industrial levels and usher in, as predicted, a brave new climatic order for the next few millennia… Continue reading →

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Exposed: climate change doubter with PhD only in spin

Posted on April 30, 2010 by John Gibbons

Looking to a statistician or economist for expert guidance on complex scientific matters makes about as much sense as consulting a neurosurgeon or a hairdresser for advice on investing in some arcane corner of the derivatives market.

However, when it comes to climate science, this is exactly what has been happening. A small band of people operating in fields entirely beyond their training or competence have, largely thanks to their skill in gaming the media, emerged as de facto international experts, advising politicians and shaping policy, with a patina of science jargon glossing over a hard core of ideology. Continue reading →

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Higher emissions? Or empty roads and emigration?

Posted on April 23, 2010 by James Nix

Monday 26 April is the last day to make a submission on the public consultation process for the largest section of motorway yet to be proposed in Ireland – some 80 km between Cork and Limerick. Submissions must be with An Bord Pleanála before 5.30pm. Unless you are a statutory consultee, or are set to lose land to the proposed motorway, an “observer fee” of €50 is payable (for more details see http://www.corkrdo.ie/files/M20 CPO data/Newspaper Ad/Cork County Council 36882 CPO Examiner Advert R2.pdf)

Over the past few weeks I’ve been fielding queries on the proposed route – everything from how much agricultural land will be lost (more than 2,400 acres) to when An Bord Pleanala is likely to issue a decision (end of August 2010).

One gentlemen sent me a list of 6 questions. They focus more on the financial side than the environmental one. Below I reproduce his questions, together with my answers. Continue reading →

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Argument versus Proselytising: Developing and defending a rational debate on energy and survival.

Posted on April 11, 2010 by Tony Kinsella

The debate on climate change faces a number of inherent handicaps. Human nature is perhaps the most important. At our best, we deal reasonably well with the present and the immediate future. If next Christmas seems remote, our abilities to grasp what the environment might look like ten or fifty years hence are severely limited. A limitation that is reinforced by our relative powerlessness – the “I’m happy to recycle but what about the Chinese coal-fired power stations?” argument.

A second handicap comes from the not insignificant resources some invest in promoting climate change denial. The most understandable of these come from businesses with a clear commercial interest in delaying, diluting, or derailing regulatory attempts.

Then come the (usually wealthy) benefactors who are ideologically opposed to any form of market regulation. This groups funds many of the more strident US think tanks and a range of other lobby groups whose job it is to rubbish climate change claims and scientific arguments. Continue reading →

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Ireland among most vulnerable to peak oil

Posted on April 8, 2010 by John Gibbons

HERE’S A conundrum: restarting global economic growth will, by definition, push up energy costs. Rising energy costs will in turn choke off that economic recovery, leading to a fall in energy prices. Try to restart growth again, and the brick wall of energy costs magically reappears. Repeat ad infinitum.

It is hard to overstate the extent to which our daily lives are subsidised by cheap, plentiful oil. Every 24 hours, Ireland burns around 200,000 barrels. That’s the daily equivalent of the muscle power of 2.4 million men, each working for a full year.

Our entire way of life depends on abundant, inexpensive oil. This era is now drawing to a close. Five years ago, the Hirsch report published by the US department of energy concluded that the world has “never faced a problem” as difficult as peak oil, adding that: “without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary”. Oil peaking will be, it warned, “abrupt and revolutionary”. Continue reading →

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Heavy weather for climate science

Posted on April 8, 2010 by John Gibbons

You would think that people whose business is the weather would be pretty informed about climate change. The reality is a great deal more complex. In the US, weathermen, for many the very public, trusted face of science, are split down the middle, with a prominent rump speaking out vociferously against human forcings driving climate change (assuming they even accept it’s occurring in the first place).

John Coleman is one of the most trusted faces on US television. He founded The Weather Channel back in the early ’80s and is something of an institution. Therefore, when Coleman in November 2007 blogged: “It is the greatest scam in history,” he began. “I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming: It is a SCAM”, he became an instant (septuagenarian) poster boy for the climate denier lobby. Continue reading →

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Suspend democracy to tackle emissions – Lovelock

Posted on April 4, 2010 by James Nix

From the Guardian:

In his first major interview since the climate-change emails scandal, James Lovelock says he is disgusted by the actions of some scientists, applauds ‘good’ climate sceptics, and warns that global warming could even lead to war

Leo Hickman
guardian.co.uk, Monday 29 March 2010

As you travel along the drive to James Lovelock’s house, located in a remote, wooded valley on the Cornwall-Devon border, you pass a sign by a gated cattle grid. “Experimental station,” it reads. “Site of a new natural habitat. Please do not trespass or disturb.”

Thirty years ago, Lovelock planted 20,000 trees to create the much more biodiverse habitat around his home. But you suspect that, had this fiercely independent scientist and globally respected environmental thinker been around 3.8 billion years ago when life first erupted on this planet, he would have organised a similar notice to be placed somewhere prominent. Continue reading →

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Low future price for carbon puts us on the wrong route

Posted on March 30, 2010 by James Nix

Transport investment is particularly expensive. And two points are emerging in Ireland. First, some facilities are significantly overcapacity. Second, there isn’t enough capacity in areas set to grow as the price of carbon emissions rise: the failure to adequately price carbon emissions links both.

During 2009 freight by road and rail each fell by 12 per cent while car traffic on national routes declined somewhere in the region of 2 – 4 per cent, with final figures awaited from the National Roads Authority.

Viewed against the road plans formulated between 2002 and 2008, which rested on the continuation of year-on-year growth, these falls are significant.

For the fourth river crossing under the Shannon at Limerick, due to open later this year, the National Roads Authority envisaged traffic growth in excess of 10 per cent during 2010. Under the public private partnership contract used on this project, the taxpayer, through the NRA, will need to make additional payments to the tunnel operator if traffic passing under the Shannon falls short of projected levels. A similar arrangement is in place on the M3, also due for completion shortly. Continue reading →

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Decreasing carbon emissions without affecting the quality of life

Posted on March 9, 2010 by Paddy Morris

There are a couple of simple ideas, which if implemented could make deep and long term cuts in our carbon emissions, while maintaining (or even increasing) the quality of life for all.

In no particular order, they are:

1. Immediately Implement a 4 day week (with obvious exceptions for emergency services etc.)

In 2008 Utah,spurred on initially by high gas prices and later by impacts from the global fiscal crisis, decided to do just this. One of the most conservative states in the US (approx. 60% of the population are Mormons) implemented one of the most radical solutions to the problems it faced – a mandatory 4 day week for 80% of state employees. Hours were changed from a 9-5 5 day week to an 8-6 4 day week.The results have been startling. Continue reading →

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Doing our best versus doing what’s required

Posted on March 3, 2010 by John Gibbons

Yesterday afternoon, I was one of a panel of four from the ‘environmental’ field who met under the ageis of Common Purpose with a group of around 25-30 senior figures from the world of business, finance, the semi-state sector and beyond. The topic of the closed session was “exploring the ability of environmental leaders to effect change by inspiring others”.

The meeting is covered by the Charter House Rules (i.e. what’s said in the room stays in the room) but it was a useful opportunity to shoot the breeze with a spectrum of people well beyond the types who might usually find themselves discussing environment, energy and sustainability issues in Dublin on a Tuesday afternoon. On the positive side, there was a good deal less scepticism/hostility to climate science than has been portrayed in our media in recent weeks. Continue reading →

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Attack on climate science has its OJ Simpson moment

Posted on February 27, 2010 by John Gibbons

Bill McKibben has been at the forefront of efforts to alert the public to the dangers of climate change for more than two decades. Today he fronts 350.org, a website dedicated to setting a global CO2 ceiling of 350ppm. Below, he turns his considerable talents to an in-depth analysis of the concerted attack on science, specifically climate science, in recent months, a campaign which has, he writes, been “enormously clever, and enormously effective”.

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Twenty-one years ago, in 1989, I wrote what many have called the first book for a general audience on global warming. One of the more interesting reviews came from the Wall Street Journal.  It was a mixed and judicious appraisal. “The subject,” the reviewer said, “is important, the notion is arresting, and Mr. McKibben argues convincingly.”  And that was not an outlier: around the same time, the first president Bush announced that he planned to “fight the greenhouse effect with the White House effect.” Continue reading →

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