Peak oil – what happens next?

Wednesday night last saw an interesting session to kick off several days of the 15th Convergence Sustainable Living Festival, organised by Cultivate.

The two-hour session was entitled: ‘Planning our retreat from fossil fuels: exploring the ramifications of Peak Oil’ and featured a panel of three speakers, David Korowicz of Feasta (and author earlier this year of the jaw-dropping report, ‘Tipping Point‘), Richard O’Rourke, director of the Irish branch of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and Green Minister of State, Ciaran Cuffe.

As moderator, I opened proceedings with the only ‘prop’ of the evening, an A3 paper printout of an eye-popping ‘World Liquid Fuels Supply 2008-2030‘ from the US Dept. of Energy’s Information Agency. This projects a staggering shortfall of 43 million barrels of oil a day by 2030, with this Grand Canyon of demand to be met by something labelled “unidentified projects”. Filling this 43mbd chasm will take the discovery and rapid exploitation of not one but several new Saudi Arabias. Too bad, having already long since located all the easy-to-reach oil on the planet, we haven’t found anything remotely on that scale since 1965. Nor will we.

David Korowicz’s opening presentation was, frankly, apocalyptic. Summarising the clear conclusions of his published research, he set out a scenario of near-term system failure, leading to irreversible cascading collapses of the complex systems which, collectively, we describe as industrial civilisation.

Sounds OTT? Much as I’d earnestly love to pin David an an incorrigible Doomer, his analysis is as meticulous as it is compelling. Bottom line: while we’ve been (rightly) worrying about climate change, Peak Oil has crept up almost unnoticed, tiger-style, and is about to pounce on an extraordinarily ill-prepared public and political system. Richard O’Rourke underlined ASPO’s contention that, like it or not, our fragile financial and energy systems are bound together at the ankles; as one trips up, down goes the other.

Batting for that system, Ciaran Cuffe set out the stall for the government, though he did admit that consciousness around the Cabinet table about just how profoundly threatened we in Ireland are by the implications of Peak Oil is, let’s say, limited. Richard and Ciaran sparred a little about how effective or otherwise groups like ASPO are are preaching to the unconverted. The ASPO director was clearly not impressed, but this is was a minor kerfuffle in the scheme of a very useful exchange of ideas on an issue of the profoundest import. Richard has a detailed posting on the meeting here.

We also had nearly a solid hour of questions, comments and interaction from the very well informed attendees. I don’t believe any media were present and, minister apart, not a solitary politician either. Shame, on both counts. Fair play must go to Davie Philip of Cultivate, the brains behind the Convergence Festival for his energy and endeavour in pulling an event on this scale together.

Ever the glutton for punishment, I was back in this morning to give a 15-minute presentation titled ‘Reflecting on the converging challenges’. This was an attempt to thread together the climate change, resource depletion and peak oil threads and put these in the wider context of a public that seems indifferent and a media that is somewhere between tuned out and openly hostile to environmental and ecological issues.

Other contributors to today’s very well attended session included Brendan Halligan, Chairman of SEAI, with some sage overviews and insights, Tony Carroll of the ESB on smart grids, EVs etc, Simon McGuinness on how Cuba survived its “Special Period” and Aideen O’Hora of SEAI on the ‘Drogheda 2020’ sustainability project. Gavin Harte had a lively presentation on ‘The Energy Smart Community’ and we then broke into groups in a World Café style to discuss and debate the morning’s session.

You can view an extended segment from the Wednesday night meeting in the clip below: (with thanks to Eoin Campbell of JustMedia for the footage)

Planning Our Retreat from Fossil Fuels: Exploring the Ramifications of Peak Oil from justmultimedia on Vimeo.

ThinkOrSwim is a blog by journalist John Gibbons focusing on the inter-related crises involving climate change, sustainability, resource depletion, energy and biodiversity loss
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7 Responses to Peak oil – what happens next?

  1. Paddy Morris says:

    “the fact that oil companies have to [go so deep] tells us something about the direction of the oil industry . . . extraction more expensive and inherently more risky . . . we can’t drill our way out of the problem . . . we should be pretty modest in understanding the easily accessible oil has already been sucked up out of the ground, oil sources are more remote, more risk, we as a society are going to have to make some very serious determinations…
    we can see what is on the horizon”

    Barack Obama, May 27th 2010
    (He also used the phrase ‘transition’ in relation to moving away from oil..)


    It is pretty obvious we need some kind of global marshall plan for energy and climate in the next decade, on a scale never seen before. We have had a 150 year free ride since 1859, when Tyndall first put forward the theory that CO2 was a greenhouse gas and the first oil well was dug. An interesting year 1859 – Mr Charles Darwin also published On the Origin of Species. The fact that ‘intelligent design’ (Crypto-creationism) is still being thought in the US as an alternative to the theory of evolution says quite a lot about how entrenched some people can be in fighting an idea which doesn’t fit with their ideology.
    Given the scale of what needs to be done, the resistance of those who favor business as usual is going to be immense. The infinite growth ideology is hitting its natural limits, but those who believe in infinite growth will find it hard to let go of an ideology that promises so much (it’s infinite growth, so it promises literally everything to true believers…). Those who advocate ‘limits to growth’ will be derided, ridiculed and opposed by those who control the current energy system and their acolytes in think tanks funded by the energy industry.

    As the Chinese say, ‘may you live in interesting times’. We appear to be living in some of the most interesting times in history, with literally a whole world to play for. If it was a game of poker, we could be safely said to be all in at present, and without a particularly strong hand to play our way out of our mess.

  2. Paddy Morris says:

    “I will tell you, though, that understanding we need to grow — we’re going to be consuming oil for our industries and for how people live in this country, we’re going to have to start moving on this transition. And that’s why when I went to the Republican Caucus just this week, I said to them, let’s work together. You’ve got Lieberman and Kerry, who previously were working with Lindsey Graham — even though Lindsey is not on the bill right now — coming up with a framework that has the potential to get bipartisan support, and says, yes, we’re going to still need oil production, but you know what, we can see what’s out there on the horizon, and it’s a problem if we don’t start changing how we operate….

    Let me make one final point. More than anything else, this economic and environmental tragedy –- and it’s a tragedy -– underscores the urgent need for this nation to develop clean, renewable sources of energy. Doing so will not only reduce threats to our environment, it will create a new, homegrown, American industry that can lead to countless new businesses and new jobs.

    We’ve talked about doing this for decades, and we’ve made significant strides over the last year when it comes to investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The House of Representatives has already passed a bill that would finally jumpstart a permanent transition to a clean energy economy, and there is currently a plan in the Senate –- a plan that was developed with ideas from Democrats and Republicans –- that would achieve the same goal.

    If nothing else, this disaster should serve as a wake-up call that it’s time to move forward on this legislation. It’s time to accelerate the competition with countries like China, who have already realized the future lies in renewable energy. And it’s time to seize that future ourselves. So I call on Democrats and Republicans in Congress, working with my administration, to answer this challenge once and for all.”

    – Barack Obama, May 2010

    And for those of you who haven’t read this (apologies about the length..):

    “During the past three years I’ve spoken to you on many occasions about national concerns, the energy crisis, reorganizing the government, our nation’s economy, and issues of war and especially peace. But over those years the subjects of the speeches, the talks, and the press conferences have become increasingly narrow, focused more and more on what the isolated world of Washington thinks is important. Gradually, you’ve heard more and more about what the government thinks or what the government should be doing and less and less about our nation’s hopes, our dreams, and our vision of the future.

    Ten days ago I had planned to speak to you again about a very important subject — energy. For the fifth time I would have described the urgency of the problem and laid out a series of legislative recommendations to the Congress. But as I was preparing to speak, I began to ask myself the same question that I now know has been troubling many of you. Why have we not been able to get together as a nation to resolve our serious energy problem?

    It’s clear that the true problems of our Nation are much deeper — deeper than gasoline lines or energy shortages, deeper even than inflation or recession. And I realize more than ever that as president I need your help. So I decided to reach out and listen to the voices of America.

    I invited to Camp David people from almost every segment of our society — business and labor, teachers and preachers, governors, mayors, and private citizens. And then I left Camp David to listen to other Americans, men and women like you.

    It has been an extraordinary ten days, and I want to share with you what I’ve heard. First of all, I got a lot of personal advice. Let me quote a few of the typical comments that I wrote down.

    This from a southern governor: “Mr. President, you are not leading this nation — you’re just managing the government.”

    “You don’t see the people enough any more.”

    “Some of your Cabinet members don’t seem loyal. There is not enough discipline among your disciples.”

    “Don’t talk to us about politics or the mechanics of government, but about an understanding of our common good.”

    “Mr. President, we’re in trouble. Talk to us about blood and sweat and tears.”

    “If you lead, Mr. President, we will follow.”

    Many people talked about themselves and about the condition of our nation.

    This from a young woman in Pennsylvania: “I feel so far from government. I feel like ordinary people are excluded from political power.”

    And this from a young Chicano: “Some of us have suffered from recession all our lives.”

    “Some people have wasted energy, but others haven’t had anything to waste.”

    And this from a religious leader: “No material shortage can touch the important things like God’s love for us or our love for one another.”

    And I like this one particularly from a black woman who happens to be the mayor of a small Mississippi town: “The big-shots are not the only ones who are important. Remember, you can’t sell anything on Wall Street unless someone digs it up somewhere else first.”

    This kind of summarized a lot of other statements: “Mr. President, we are confronted with a moral and a spiritual crisis.”

    Several of our discussions were on energy, and I have a notebook full of comments and advice. I’ll read just a few.

    “We can’t go on consuming 40 percent more energy than we produce. When we import oil we are also importing inflation plus unemployment.”

    “We’ve got to use what we have. The Middle East has only five percent of the world’s energy, but the United States has 24 percent.”

    And this is one of the most vivid statements: “Our neck is stretched over the fence and OPEC has a knife.”

    “There will be other cartels and other shortages. American wisdom and courage right now can set a path to follow in the future.”

    This was a good one: “Be bold, Mr. President. We may make mistakes, but we are ready to experiment.”

    And this one from a labor leader got to the heart of it: “The real issue is freedom. We must deal with the energy problem on a war footing.”

    And the last that I’ll read: “When we enter the moral equivalent of war, Mr. President, don’t issue us BB guns.”

    These ten days confirmed my belief in the decency and the strength and the wisdom of the American people, but it also bore out some of my long-standing concerns about our nation’s underlying problems.

    I know, of course, being president, that government actions and legislation can be very important. That’s why I’ve worked hard to put my campaign promises into law — and I have to admit, with just mixed success. But after listening to the American people I have been reminded again that all the legislation in the world can’t fix what’s wrong with America. So, I want to speak to you first tonight about a subject even more serious than energy or inflation. I want to talk to you right now about a fundamental threat to American democracy.

    I do not mean our political and civil liberties. They will endure. And I do not refer to the outward strength of America, a nation that is at peace tonight everywhere in the world, with unmatched economic power and military might.

    The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation.

    The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.

    The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July.

    It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people. Confidence in the future has supported everything else — public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations. We’ve always believed in something called progress. We’ve always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own.

    Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world. We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom, and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past.

    In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close-knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.

    The symptoms of this crisis of the American spirit are all around us. For the first time in the history of our country a majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the past five years. Two-thirds of our people do not even vote. The productivity of American workers is actually dropping, and the willingness of Americans to save for the future has fallen below that of all other people in the Western world.

    As you know, there is a growing disrespect for government and for churches and for schools, the news media, and other institutions. This is not a message of happiness or reassurance, but it is the truth and it is a warning.

    These changes did not happen overnight. They’ve come upon us gradually over the last generation, years that were filled with shocks and tragedy.

    We were sure that ours was a nation of the ballot, not the bullet, until the murders of John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. We were taught that our armies were always invincible and our causes were always just, only to suffer the agony of Vietnam. We respected the presidency as a place of honor until the shock of Watergate.

    We remember when the phrase “sound as a dollar” was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation’s resources were limitless until 1973, when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil.

    These wounds are still very deep. They have never been healed. Looking for a way out of this crisis, our people have turned to the Federal government and found it isolated from the mainstream of our nation’s life. Washington, D.C., has become an island. The gap between our citizens and our government has never been so wide. The people are looking for honest answers, not easy answers; clear leadership, not false claims and evasiveness and politics as usual.

    What you see too often in Washington and elsewhere around the country is a system of government that seems incapable of action. You see a Congress twisted and pulled in every direction by hundreds of well-financed and powerful special interests. You see every extreme position defended to the last vote, almost to the last breath by one unyielding group or another. You often see a balanced and a fair approach that demands sacrifice, a little sacrifice from everyone, abandoned like an orphan without support and without friends.

    Often you see paralysis and stagnation and drift. You don’t like it, and neither do I. What can we do?

    First of all, we must face the truth, and then we can change our course. We simply must have faith in each other, faith in our ability to govern ourselves, and faith in the future of this nation. Restoring that faith and that confidence to America is now the most important task we face. It is a true challenge of this generation of Americans.

    One of the visitors to Camp David last week put it this way: “We’ve got to stop crying and start sweating, stop talking and start walking, stop cursing and start praying. The strength we need will not come from the White House, but from every house in America.”

    We know the strength of America. We are strong. We can regain our unity. We can regain our confidence. We are the heirs of generations who survived threats much more powerful and awesome than those that challenge us now. Our fathers and mothers were strong men and women who shaped a new society during the Great Depression, who fought world wars, and who carved out a new charter of peace for the world.

    We ourselves are the same Americans who just ten years ago put a man on the Moon. We are the generation that dedicated our society to the pursuit of human rights and equality. And we are the generation that will win the war on the energy problem and in that process rebuild the unity and confidence of America.

    We are at a turning point in our history. There are two paths to choose. One is a path I’ve warned about tonight, the path that leads to fragmentation and self-interest. Down that road lies a mistaken idea of freedom, the right to grasp for ourselves some advantage over others. That path would be one of constant conflict between narrow interests ending in chaos and immobility. It is a certain route to failure.

    All the traditions of our past, all the lessons of our heritage, all the promises of our future point to another path, the path of common purpose and the restoration of American values. That path leads to true freedom for our nation and ourselves. We can take the first steps down that path as we begin to solve our energy problem.

    Energy will be the immediate test of our ability to unite this nation, and it can also be the standard around which we rally. On the battlefield of energy we can win for our nation a new confidence, and we can seize control again of our common destiny.

    In little more than two decades we’ve gone from a position of energy independence to one in which almost half the oil we use comes from foreign countries, at prices that are going through the roof. Our excessive dependence on OPEC has already taken a tremendous toll on our economy and our people. This is the direct cause of the long lines which have made millions of you spend aggravating hours waiting for gasoline. It’s a cause of the increased inflation and unemployment that we now face. This intolerable dependence on foreign oil threatens our economic independence and the very security of our nation. The energy crisis is real. It is worldwide. It is a clear and present danger to our nation. These are facts and we simply must face them.

    What I have to say to you now about energy is simple and vitally important.

    Point one: I am tonight setting a clear goal for the energy policy of the United States. Beginning this moment, this nation will never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977 — never. From now on, every new addition to our demand for energy will be met from our own production and our own conservation. The generation-long growth in our dependence on foreign oil will be stopped dead in its tracks right now and then reversed as we move through the 1980s, for I am tonight setting the further goal of cutting our dependence on foreign oil by one-half by the end of the next decade — a saving of over 4-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day.

    Point two: To ensure that we meet these targets, I will use my presidential authority to set import quotas. I’m announcing tonight that for 1979 and 1980, I will forbid the entry into this country of one drop of foreign oil more than these goals allow. These quotas will ensure a reduction in imports even below the ambitious levels we set at the recent Tokyo summit.

    Point three: To give us energy security, I am asking for the most massive peacetime commitment of funds and resources in our nation’s history to develop America’s own alternative sources of fuel — from coal, from oil shale, from plant products for gasohol, from unconventional gas, from the sun.

    I propose the creation of an energy security corporation to lead this effort to replace 2-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day by 1990. The corporation I will issue up to $5 billion in energy bonds, and I especially want them to be in small denominations so that average Americans can invest directly in America’s energy security.

    Just as a similar synthetic rubber corporation helped us win World War II, so will we mobilize American determination and ability to win the energy war. Moreover, I will soon submit legislation to Congress calling for the creation of this nation’s first solar bank, which will help us achieve the crucial goal of 20 percent of our energy coming from solar power by the year 2000.

    These efforts will cost money, a lot of money, and that is why Congress must enact the windfall profits tax without delay. It will be money well spent. Unlike the billions of dollars that we ship to foreign countries to pay for foreign oil, these funds will be paid by Americans to Americans. These funds will go to fight, not to increase, inflation and unemployment.

    Point four: I’m asking Congress to mandate, to require as a matter of law, that our nation’s utility companies cut their massive use of oil by 50 percent within the next decade and switch to other fuels, especially coal, our most abundant energy source.

    Point five: To make absolutely certain that nothing stands in the way of achieving these goals, I will urge Congress to create an energy mobilization board which, like the War Production Board in World War II, will have the responsibility and authority to cut through the red tape, the delays, and the endless roadblocks to completing key energy projects.

    We will protect our environment. But when this nation critically needs a refinery or a pipeline, we will build it.

    Point six: I’m proposing a bold conservation program to involve every state, county, and city and every average American in our energy battle. This effort will permit you to build conservation into your homes and your lives at a cost you can afford.

    I ask Congress to give me authority for mandatory conservation and for standby gasoline rationing. To further conserve energy, I’m proposing tonight an extra $10 billion over the next decade to strengthen our public transportation systems. And I’m asking you for your good and for your nation’s security to take no unnecessary trips, to use carpools or public transportation whenever you can, to park your car one extra day per week, to obey the speed limit, and to set your thermostats to save fuel. Every act of energy conservation like this is more than just common sense — I tell you it is an act of patriotism.

    Our nation must be fair to the poorest among us, so we will increase aid to needy Americans to cope with rising energy prices. We often think of conservation only in terms of sacrifice. In fact, it is the most painless and immediate way of rebuilding our nation’s strength. Every gallon of oil each one of us saves is a new form of production. It gives us more freedom, more confidence, that much more control over our own lives.

    So, the solution of our energy crisis can also help us to conquer the crisis of the spirit in our country. It can rekindle our sense of unity, our confidence in the future, and give our nation and all of us individually a new sense of purpose.

    You know we can do it. We have the natural resources. We have more oil in our shale alone than several Saudi Arabias. We have more coal than any nation on Earth. We have the world’s highest level of technology. We have the most skilled work force, with innovative genius, and I firmly believe that we have the national will to win this war.

    I do not promise you that this struggle for freedom will be easy. I do not promise a quick way out of our nation’s problems, when the truth is that the only way out is an all-out effort. What I do promise you is that I will lead our fight, and I will enforce fairness in our struggle, and I will ensure honesty. And above all, I will act. We can manage the short-term shortages more effectively and we will, but there are no short-term solutions to our long-range problems. There is simply no way to avoid sacrifice.

    Twelve hours from now I will speak again in Kansas City, to expand and to explain further our energy program. Just as the search for solutions to our energy shortages has now led us to a new awareness of our Nation’s deeper problems, so our willingness to work for those solutions in energy can strengthen us to attack those deeper problems.

    I will continue to travel this country, to hear the people of America. You can help me to develop a national agenda for the 1980s. I will listen and I will act. We will act together. These were the promises I made three years ago, and I intend to keep them.

    Little by little we can and we must rebuild our confidence. We can spend until we empty our treasuries, and we may summon all the wonders of science. But we can succeed only if we tap our greatest resources — America’s people, America’s values, and America’s confidence.

    I have seen the strength of America in the inexhaustible resources of our people. In the days to come, let us renew that strength in the struggle for an energy secure nation.

    In closing, let me say this: I will do my best, but I will not do it alone. Let your voice be heard. Whenever you have a chance, say something good about our country. With God’s help and for the sake of our nation, it is time for us to join hands in America. Let us commit ourselves together to a rebirth of the American spirit. Working together with our common faith we cannot fail”

    – Jimmy Carter, 1979


    Ever get the impression we took a wrong turn some way along the line?

  3. John Gibbons says:

    Poor old Jimmy Carter, way ahead of his time, his legacy scrubbed from history by the blight of eight years of Reagan, Reaganomics and all that flowed from it. There definitely was a time, a moment, when the course of history might have altered and led us on a less atavistic trajectory, but one suspects that moment has long since passed.

    Still, Stewart Brand (of ‘Whole Earth Catalogue’ fame) didn’t seem too bothered, based on his contribution in last night’s discussion/debate with Ian McEwan in the NCH. Brand reckons that we’ll just magic over to some other ultra-high density energy form and, howzat, sail on ahead largely unruffled. (Ok, that may be doing the man a disservice by oversimplification).

    Don’t imagine he’s read the Feasta ‘Tipping Point’ document; too bad, as I’d love to have heard his critique of same. Brand is certainly bang on the money in his defence of nuclear as the ONLY possible alternate energy system that has the remotest chance of being massively deployed in time to cover the gaping deficits in our future liquid fuel supply options.

  4. Paddy Morris says:

    Agreed on nuclear, this article from Wired last year sums up the possibilities, especially of thorium, quite well:

    India has lots of thorium ,and lots of people – they have come up with what seems like a good plan to develop their nuclear industry over the next 50 or so years…

    I am thinking that we are currently on the rocky plateau of oil production currently, and that we have been since roughly ’05/’08. The last half decade has been a lot better than I had anticipated – the system is more resilient than I would have thought it to be 5 or 6 years ago.

    The economic crash might even have bought us the half decade/decade we needed to deal with whats coming down the tracks energy wise.

    But systemic failure is always a possibility, and that quote Morgan Kelly used in last weeks Irish Times keeps coming back to me: ‘slowly, and then all at once’.

    We may simply be in the eye of the storm at present, with time bought by the economic crash, but no alternative when the big fields go into serious decline
    (like Cantarell, Mexico: 2003 2.1 million barrels/day, 2009 772,000 barrels/day – 66% in 6 years! )

    There are no more Saudi Arabias out there, and no sign of the huge investments necessary to head off both climate change and decline in energy supplies.

  5. Paddy Morris says:

    Peak oil means increasing risks in exploiting marginal oil, particularly deep water oil. As Deepwater Horizon has shown, maximising oil production, and maximising profits in extracting it by skimping on safety, can have catastrophic consequences…

    These photos are deeply depressing, and help show that it is now extremely urgent that we wean ourselves off oil asap:

  6. denis says:

    Due to the high embodied energy, short life span, and the absolute manufacturing dependence on fossil fuel of so called alternative energy technologies, we can never even approach the energy output of fossil fuel by these technologies.
    Stockpile your shovels—– most of you will be working in the fields in the future, or else you will starve to death.

  7. sadic says:

    We have Ben Affleck (Notion,
    Margarite Place of shelter) and Samuel L. Jackson (Soft part Fantasy,
    Unbreakable, Arrow) a enraged porno alcoholic trying to rescue himself and
    his parents and children (Jackson) and Affleck, a newbie solicitor
    who is getting a absolute test by the tongue of justness and wile
    from the inside of his own customary duty and from his partners.

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