Six degrees to annihilation

Posted on August 29, 2010 by John Gibbons

Below is a news feature as appears on page 14 of this weekend’s Sunday Tribune. Given that global emissions are and will continue to run at or perhaps beyond the IPCC’s ‘worst-case’ (A1F1) scenario, I felt it useful to try to translate likely real-world impacts into a language that is more widely understood. The degree-by-degree structure broadly follows the model of Mark Lynas’ excellent ‘Six Degrees’…

Climate, wrote Oscar Wilde, “is what you expect. Weather is what you get”. And weather is a chaotic beast. In the last 12 months alone, Ireland has endured some of the worst flooding in a century, followed by the hardest freeze in four decades, and, in recent months, near-drought conditions.

With both environmental activists and climate change deniers attempting to use one extreme weather event or the other to ‘prove’ their completely contradictory positions, small wonder that the public and large sections of the media do not know who or what to believe. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming, Habitat/Species, Irish Focus, Sustainability | 42 Comments

For whom the (Angelus) bell tolls

Posted on August 15, 2010 by John Gibbons

Now here’s a genuinely novel idea. “Religious leaders need to be held accountable for their ideas. In my state of Arizona, Sister Margaret McBride, a senior administrator at St. Joseph’s Hospital in Phoenix, recently authorised a legal abortion to save the life of a 27-year-old mother of four who was 11 weeks pregnant and suffering from severe complications of pulmonary hypertension; she made that decision after consultation with the mother’s family, her doctors and the local ethics committee”.

The bishop of Phoenix, Thomas Olmsted, immediately excommunicated Sister Margaret, saying that the mother’s life cannot be preferred over the child’s. “Ordinarily, a man who would callously let a woman die and orphan her children would be called a monster; this should not change just because he is a cleric”.

So writes Lawrence Krauss in the current edition of Scientific American. “I don’t know which is more dangerous, that religious beliefs force some people to choose between knowledge and myth or that pointing out how religion can purvey ignorance is taboo. To do so risks being branded as intolerant of religion”, he continues. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming, Sustainability | 29 Comments

Driving an Electric Car

Posted on August 10, 2010 by Paddy Morris

I was fortunate enough to test-drive the Nissan Leaf this week, and thought I would post some first impressions.

The car itself is very comfortable, and for anyone used to a Prius (or any automatic), it drives exactly like a normal car. The car is comfortable, acceleration is quite quick, and overall the car performs perfectly for city driving – my test drive was relatively short and was city based, but I am sure it would perform perfectly for mid-range journeys as well.

The range is stated to be 160km – certainly more than enough for the daily commute in a city. The car comes with Sat-Nav built in, and the available range is highlighted on the map. Obviously depending on how the car is driven, this range can change, but this is all reflected on the map  in real time so you can see clearly what affect different driving styles have on your range. The car also has an eco-drive mode which reduces the rate of acceleration and hence increases the range. Continue reading →

Posted in Energy, Sustainability | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

A safer future? Don’t bank on it

Posted on July 22, 2010 by John Gibbons

“Disaster myopia” was a new phrase to enter the lexicon of Irish political life this week. This condition manifests itself in an “increasing tendency to discount the probability of a disaster occurring, the longer the interval of time that has elapsed since a disaster last occurred”.

Disaster myopia is, we also learned, reinforced by competitive pressure: “Dealing with the threat from competitors and defending or increasing market share is real, but disaster is an abstraction until it breaks.”

“Was the scale of risk-taking such as to be reckless? Looking back from a point in the middle of the wreckage, recklessness seems like a reasonable word to use but, of course, this is hindsight bias at work.” At the time the future looked different. …Undoubtedly the sceptics could have and, with the benefit of hindsight, should have, articulated their doubts much more consistently. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming, Irish Focus, Sustainability | 26 Comments

Dear Willie: when in a hole, stop digging

Posted on July 15, 2010 by John Gibbons

Well hallelujah! We’ve been waiting years to read something bordering on sensible from UCC’s ‘Public Awareness of Science’ officer and Irish Times columnist William Reville on the subject of climate change and by golly, this week’s offering was very, very nearly there.

Reville did a review/critique of sorts of Duncan Stewart’s excellent recent RTE documentary, ‘A Burning Question‘ (though he didn’t actually manage to get the title right). Regarding Climategate, Reville has had little short of an epiphany. Today he writes: “…it soon became clear that most of the suspicious e-mail content was just insider jargon and “macho” posturing and did not weaken the overall scientific case for climate change”.

What a fascinating volte face from the ‘Public Awareness of Science’ expert! In the same column in the same paper last December, Reville was, well, revelling in the exposure of the great climate swindle: “The e-mails appear to reveal scientists on the majority side of the debate massaging data to suit their anthropic global warming (AGW) hypothesis, dragging their heels on freedom of information requests, and conspiring to block scientists who oppose AGW from publishing their results”. This was, he breathlessly reported, an “explosive development”. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming, Media, Sceptics | Tagged , , , | 11 Comments

EU “may adapt” 10% biofuel target

Posted on July 6, 2010 by James Nix

The scientific perspective could “kill biofuels” – that’s what the head of the EU’s agriculture unit said to colleagues in response to data showing the global ramifications of dedicating land in Europe to biofuels.

The new Commissioner has said “if it is confirmed … that there is a serious problem related to indirect land use, we may adapt our legislation”; more below.

SPECIAL REPORT-Europe finds politics and biofuels don’t mix

* Environmental damage from land use change sparks debate
* Commission split over science behind biofuel goals
* Scientists disown reports they say were doctored
* Has Brussels tweaked studies to fit pro-biofuels policy?
* New German Commissioner hints at change

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6641FD20100705 Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming, Sustainability | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Ming shows our bogs no mercy

Posted on July 4, 2010 by John Gibbons

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”. So wrote novelist Upton Sinclair, and boy, did he have a clear understanding of human nature.

Last Thursday’ PrimeTime on RTE featured a report on what it called ‘Turf Wars’, the latest skirmish in the ongoing east-west battle to define what country we really are, and perhaps, what century we see ourselves in. I wrote about this at length last August – one para from that article is below:

“Ireland doesn’t have any significant coal deposits to burn. What we have instead are some of the world’s most important bogs. Peatlands comprise almost a fifth of Ireland’s land cover, and lock away a massive 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon. They are also home to around half our endangered bird species and around a quarter of endangered plant species. Peat bogs are amazingly efficient carbon sponges. A healthy bog typically stores 10 times more carbon per hectare than any other system, including forests. Peatland protection, according to the UN Environment Programme is “among the most cost-effective options for mitigating climate change”. Damage to peat bogs is now producing the equivalent of over a tenth of total global fossil-fuel emissions.” Continue reading →

Posted in Biodiversity, Global Warming, Habitat/Species, Irish Focus, Sustainability | 8 Comments

A burning question

Posted on June 28, 2010 by John Gibbons

Fair play to Duncan Stewart. He was in combative form on Saturday’s Marian Finucane Show on RTE radio. The subject of his interview was the one hour documentary film special, ‘A Burning Question’, which airs this Tuesday (29th) at 10.10pm on RTE 1 and featuring many of the great and the good in the field, from the UN’s Ban Ki Moon to Mary Robinson, Prof John Sweeney and economist and late eco-convert David McWilliams (I’m in there somewhere among the interviewees). Click here to view the film online (in two parts).

The documentary promises to take a forensic look at the ever-expanding chasm between what the science of climate change is telling us and how this critical issue is being presented (and misrepresented) via the media. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming, Irish Focus, Media, Sceptics | Tagged , , , , , | 12 Comments

Sunday Times shows its hand. Again.

Posted on June 23, 2010 by John Gibbons

Last April, I gave a lecture to the Met Society of Ireland in Glasnevin. A Sunday Times reporter was in the audience, though she did not make herself known to me, ask any questions or attempt to speak to me afterwards. However, five days later I got a call from said reporter, picking up on some choice observations on my part about the, em, quality of journalism on display post-Climategate/Copenhagen and the winter cold snap.

It must have been a veeery slow week, because two days later, a whopper of a ‘news’ article appeared in the ST, covering around two thirds of page 3 (appropriately enough, for a Murdoch title). I covered this incident on this blog back in April.

And now they’re back. From outer space. Those irrepressible Sunday Times hacks, ever eager to please their billionaire publisher, just couldn’t wait for another juicy ‘climate’ scandal story, they just galloped ahead and made up their own! Continue reading →

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Oil: supply shortfall & getting a sense of the scale of BP’s spill

Posted on June 21, 2010 by James Nix

We’re now beginning to see government agencies put figures on the oil supply deficit in coming years.

The US Department of Energy information agency say that current data points to a supply deficit of 5 million barrels a day by 2015, rising to 20 million barrels a day in 2020. This estimate, calculated in April 2009 after the economic crash in western countries, is based on slowly rising global demand, largely on foot of increased consumption in China and India.

But rather than translating into queues at petrol pumps, the deficit is expected to prompt price increases over time as demand runs ahead of supply.

Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency advises that “we have to leave oil before oil leaves us”. Signs of that remain thin on the ground, the car park of Leinster House being a case in point.

And the ill-fated attempt to drill for oil one mile below the ocean surface off the coast of Louisiana is testament to the complexity, even desperation, brought on by peak oil. It’s not easy to manage oil exploration 1,500 metres underwater where divers can only operate locked inside submarines.

What’s more, gaining a picture of just how much oil is escaping every day in the gulf is very difficult. In a ‘worse-case’ scenario, the spill could rise to 100,000 barrels a day, according to BP. The current estimate is 60,000 barrels a day, according to the US government. Let’s take the lower figure.

Some 60,000 barrels converts to 9.6 million litres. What would that be in terms of Irish dairy production, for example? To produce 9.6m litres of milk a day would take a staggering 420,000 cows. Or put it another way, the standard home delivery oil truck carries 20,000. Now picture 480 of these trucks circled on the beaches of a small island spilling their contents into the sea every day.

Posted in Economics, Global Warming | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Lloyd’s of London on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Business as usual is no longer an option

Posted on June 15, 2010 by Paddy Morris

Lloyd’s of London recently published a white paper called “Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic risks and opportunities for business (PDF)“.

It would appear business as usual is no longer an option. The paper is available for free online and is essential reading.

The executive summary is worth quoting verbatim:

1.  BUSINESSES WHICH PREPARE FOR AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE NEW ENERGY REALITY WILL PROSPER – FAILURE TO DO SO COULD BE CATASTROPHIC

Energy security and climate change concerns are unleashing a wave of policy initiatives and investments around the world that will fundamentally alter the way that we manage and use energy. Companies which are able to plan for and take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and competitiveness. Failure to do so could lead to expensive and potentially catastrophic consequences. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming | 2 Comments

Next stop: make up our mind time

Posted on May 31, 2010 by James Nix

In the last post Paddy Morris noted that we need a vision and implementation strategy along the lines of the Marshall Plan to shield us from the worst of the energy and climate crises.

He’s right. Avoiding oil consumption and carbon dioxide emissions would then guide our investments. Paddy’s post, and John’s before it, sent me looking through my notes on the biggest single transport investment proposal ever put forward in Ireland – Metro North.

Does energy or climate get a look in?

An Bord Pleanala is due to give its decision towards the end of the July. The planning appeals board held almost 40 days of hearings into Metro North earlier this year and in late 2009. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming, Irish Focus | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Peak oil – what happens next?

Posted on May 28, 2010 by John Gibbons

Wednesday night last saw an interesting session to kick off several days of the 15th Convergence Sustainable Living Festival, organised by Cultivate.

The two-hour session was entitled: ‘Planning our retreat from fossil fuels: exploring the ramifications of Peak Oil’ and featured a panel of three speakers, David Korowicz of Feasta (and author earlier this year of the jaw-dropping report, ‘Tipping Point‘), Richard O’Rourke, director of the Irish branch of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and Green Minister of State, Ciaran Cuffe. Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Global Warming, Sustainability | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Notes from a conference: ‘The need for road research’

Posted on May 21, 2010 by James Nix

There was a seminar yesterday morning jointly organised by TCD + UCD titled “The need for road research”, and held in Foster Place.

Overall, it was biased in favour of transport by private vehicle with insufficient recognition of the capability and future role of simple and cost effective solutions, namely cycling, walking, and public transport. Indeed references to walking, cycling and public transport – when they did come – came largely from the floor, or prompted by questions from the floor. Continue reading →

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Sobering Questions from the Island Mountain

Posted on May 16, 2010 by Tony Kinsella

Most media attention on the eruption of the volcano under Eyjafjallajökull (or the island-mountain glacier in Icelandic) has understandably focused on how its ash plume plays havoc with modern air transport. The deeper lessons, including evidence of yet another extinct species, have hardly featured – perhaps because they offer a highly unflattering image of our societies.

Volcanic ash and modern aircraft engines, either jet or turbo-propellor, do not mix well. The negative effects vary in function of the composition of the ash, which in turn depends on the nature of the eruption. Volcanic ash is less disastrous for piston-engined aircraft but such engines are now only used to power light aircraft. Continue reading →

Posted in Global Warming | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments