15 Reasons to be (Mildly) Optimistic about COP15

Posted on December 8, 2009 by Paddy Morris

As the Copenhagen conference progresses, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a brief look what’s the various different countries have offered, and reasons why there is some room for optimism about a decent deal being done…

1. The US seems prepared to act, if necessary by bypassing Congress and the Senate. The formal declaration by the US EPA that CO2 (along with other greenhouse gases) is an ‘endangering pollutant‘ means that the EPA can now use it’s powers under the existing Clean Air Act to regulate CO2 as failure to act would “threaten the public health and welfare of the American people”.  It appears that if the Senate doesn’t pass the legislation currently before it the EPA will simply regulate greenhouse gases under existing laws instead. The current proposed cut from the US is approximately 17% by 2020 on 2005 levels. Although not ideal, this proposed cut is a dramatic improvement on earlier obstructionism from the US. Continue reading →

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Planning for the 21st Century: More Than Permission to Build

Posted on December 7, 2009 by Joseph Curtin

Planning as a concept has become synonymous with “permission to build” in this country. As in: “I got ‘the planning’ for the apartments on the flood-plain at the outer-rim of the commuter belt”. The original meaning – taking a strategic approach to the future – is as common to these shores it seems as cautious property development.

Nevertheless, one can only learn from past mistakes.

One thing we know for sure, irrespective of the outcome of Copenhagen, is that Ireland is legally bound to reduce its “domestic sector” emissions 20% on 2005 levels by 2020. Not only is this the most onerous target among EU countries – our high GDP per capita at the time saw to that – it will rise to 30% if an international agreement is reached in Copenhagen (or subsequently) which demands comparable efforts from other developed countries. Continue reading →

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A sceptic on the couch

Posted on December 6, 2009 by John Gibbons

I’ve had my say on KennyGate, as have a good many other people (to my new cadre of hate-mailers, sorry for not posting all your anonymous spleen. Life’s a bitch, eh? Give my regards to Elvis). Meanwhile, a regular correspondent, Coilin MacLochlainn, sent in a highly original take , which I hope you’ll enjoy as much as I did. Over to you, Coilin…

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Let’s imagine that Pat Kenny is feeling a bit off colour and decides to visit a psychoanalyst.

Dr Thelme Datruth-Y’Boyo is a bright young thing from Darfur who happens to read a certain column that appears in the Irish Times every Thursday. Her parents and siblings are starving because of drought brought on by climate change and the resulting war in Darfur. She gives John O’Shea of GOAL most of her savings but knows that the war won’t end until the real problem, climate change, is tackled. Continue reading →

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John The Apostle Walks The Plank

Posted on December 2, 2009 by John Gibbons

Hell, it seems, hath no fury like a broadcaster scorned. After my recent adventures with RTE’s Pat Kenny, it was only a matter of time before the veteran broadcaster would try to even the score for what he no doubt perceived as slights to the notion that he is capable of being unbiased, objective and responsible on the issue of climate change.

The COP15 gig commences next Monday in Copenhagen, with the great and the good from science, politics and policymaking gathering from the five continents for the world’s most important climate conference since the Rio Summit in 1992. Pat Kenny’s parody of pre-Copenhagen “coverage” involved bringing on a discredited Australian mining industry hack on as an “expert” to challenge the dreadful scientific consensus that Kenny, in the great tradition of Don Quixote, is determined to unseat.

Click here to listen to the Pat Kenny/Plimer/Gibbons “debate” 2-12-09 Continue reading →

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Copenhagen: As MAD as it seems?

Posted on December 1, 2009 by Joseph Curtin

“We’re eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked” – these were the words of Secretary of State Dean Rusk at the height of the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962.

It may be abhorrent to some, but despite the high stakes international negotiations often come down to extracting the maximum from your interlocutor.

In the case of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the stakes could not have been higher – President Kennedy had played his hand by blockading Cuba and the Soviet Union had no choice but to back down to avoid Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Analysts have interpreted this as a classic instance of a nuclear game of “Chicken” Khrushchev was convinced that his choice was between turning his fleet home or nuclear holocaust. Continue reading →

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21st Century Swords to Plowshares: From Megatons to Megawatts

Posted on November 28, 2009 by Paddy Morris

Currently, hydropower provides 6% of the USA’s electrical power, and solar, biomass, wind and geothermal combined provide 3%.

Dismantled nuclear weapons provide 10%.

The ‘Megatons to Megawatts’ programme was instituted in the 1990s as a means to secure the weapons that both the US and Russsia had agreed to dismantle as a result of arms reduction treaties. What was initially seen as a massive security issue has been transformed into a cheap and plentiful supply of fissile material, and also led to huge financial savings from not having to secure and maintain the warheads themselves, along with their associated delivery systems. The scheme has been very successful – material from Russia’s ex-weapons currently provides 45% of the fuel in US reactors, with former American weapons providing a further 5%. Continue reading →

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Keeping our heads above (rising) water

Posted on November 26, 2009 by John Gibbons

In these dark November days, as parts of Ireland lie submerged after a virtually stormless deluge, it’s natural to want to look for some positive news. Images of tens of thousands of people using the public sector strike on Tuesday (many of them public servants themselves) to head over the border for ‘bargains’ in Northern Ireland is a tangible reminder of how narrow self-interest and the prospect – real or imaginary – of a bargain quickly part us from our senses.

Ireland is currently spending almost €500m a week more than our national income. This is disastrously unsustainable, but rather than seeing an outbreak of the Blitz Spirit, instead our response is an atomised mé fein-ism. Those thousands of cars streaming into Newry are hastening the demise of their neighbours’ businesses. Continue reading →

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Full steam ahead!

Posted on November 24, 2009 by John Gibbons

While the mud flies to the left and to the right, now, with just 12 days to the opening of the COP15 climate conference in Copenhagen, looks like it’s all hands on deck, women and children first, etc. etc. as the good ship Hubris stokes up its coal-fired turbines and steams us towards, well, you know…

Heartiest congratulations to all the merry crew of climate deniers and assorted smart alecs and know-alls. We’d never have come so far, so quickly, and been in it quite so deep were it not for your Trojan efforts. Don’t be so modest, you’re the real stars of this Tragedy.

Next stop?

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Nothing new under the sun?

Posted on November 19, 2009 by John Gibbons

Around seven years ago, I read a history of the planet in the 20th century, entitled ‘Something New Under The Sun‘, by Georgetown University professor, JR McNeill. The book examined the biosphere, slice by slice, and concluded that, whatever else, the 20th century should be seen as a historical once-off.

The 21st century, he noted, would have to be profoundly different – either humanity learns to live within limits (of resources and carbon emissions), or the entire system would crash, with the profoundest of consequences for life on Earth. This book had a major influence on my decision to get involved in writing and campaigning on climate and environmental topics. Continue reading →

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To the last drop?

Posted on November 10, 2009 by John Gibbons

Take a minute or two to study the chart below. It is just issued by the International Energy Agency, an industry-centric organisation not prone to engaging in eco-alarmism. But this is alarming, truly shocking in fact.

OilProduction

The dark blue chart area is the one to watch. This is the real, live oil, the stuff civilisation runs on. Today, it provides around 70 of the 82 million or so of oil-equivalent barrels we burn each day. Continue reading →

Posted in Energy, Global Warming, Irish Focus, Nuclear, Sustainability | Tagged , , , , , , | 31 Comments

McCarthy: ability without sustainabilty?

Posted on November 5, 2009 by John Gibbons

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? This well-known Latin phrase from the poet Juvenal, loosely translates to “Who will guard the guards?” It came to mind when thinking about the Talented Mr McCarthy and his oversized shears, better known as An Bord Snip Nua. Regular readers will know that I have a slight ongoing problem with what we refer to as orthodox economics, and its practitioners, our mighty Fifth Estate, the economists.

Whatever degree factory churns them out, our economists mostly march metronomically to the rhythm of the all-seeing Market. Too bad the world has moved on since Milton Friedman was their pin-up boy. Meanwhile, An Bord Snip Nua is cheerfully both diagnosing what ails Ireland Inc, and prescribing our remedial treatment. Continue reading →

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Now we’re getting somewhere

Posted on October 28, 2009 by John Gibbons

Earlier today, at a very well attended press conference in Leinster House, the all-party Oireachtas Committee on Climate Change and Energy released their report, ‘The case for a climate change law’.

Committee rapporteur, Liz McManus likened the position we now find ourselves in and the scale of what is required to address it as being “like a war effort”. This, from the Opposition, is extremely encouraging. McManus has for the last year or so, given the distinct impression that she realises this is no phoney war. In that regard, she remains in a small minority within Dail Eireann.

I’d like to believe the numbers are growing, but with the scant, patchy and highly erratic way the media in general continues to cover this issue (with more scare stories about how we “can’t afford” to do anything, or contributions from the it’s-all-a-scam circus) doesn’t lead to any excessive optimism. Continue reading →

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A smart tax, on so many levels

Posted on October 23, 2009 by John Gibbons

James Tobin had a very, very good idea. So good, in fact, they named it after him. And that’s the Tobin Tax. It’s a small tax with very big potential. And best of all, it’s a damn good idea, in that it’s a tax that places a levy on socially, financially or economically non-productive (or even destructive) activity.

The Tobin Tax was proposed back in 1972, shortly after the break-up of the Bretton Woods fixed-exchange-rate system. The idea was to place a tax on foreign currency transactions that would shield national governments from having their economies at the mercy of speculators. a tax on financial transactions. The reason you may not have heard of it is that it exists in theory alone. Continue reading →

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There (still) is no plan B

Posted on October 21, 2009 by John Gibbons

One of my earliest posts on this blog, on December 12, 2007, was headed ‘There is no Plan B‘. The headline was taken from a quote from the then new Australian PM, Kevin Rudd to delegates at the UN climate conference in Bali.

The line re-emerged earlier today, when British PM, Gordon Brown said in London: “This is the moment. Now is the time. For the planet there is no plan B”. He outlined a catastrophic scenario of heatwaves, flooding and droughts if an ambitious new deal is not secured in Copenhagen in December. Continue reading →

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Cool, sparkling sense comes dropping slow

Posted on October 19, 2009 by John Gibbons

Amazing the things you never knew you never knew. This morning, for instance, I found out that if you spell ‘naive’ backwards, you come up with Evian, the cool, sparkling spring water that is full of, er, volcanicity – this apparently being the distinctive flavour of this tipple as it percolates up from caverns measureless to man, emanating, no doubt from a sunless sea of startling purity (with apologies to S. T. Coleridge).

This nugget was texted in to Tom Dunne’s breakfast show on Newstalk, where I was his studio guest for a slot discussing the great bottled water swindle, a topic I had covered in last week’s IT column. That piece led off with a reference to a vintage video clip from Penn Teller’s satirical US documentary series entitled “Bullshit”, where they looked at different areas of pure bull, from the Bible to bottled water, and had a lot of fun along the way. By popular demand, you can view it in its entirety, including the unforgettable Amazon bottled water, complete with dead spider: Continue reading →

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