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Copenhagen & beyond: where now for the EU?

Wednesday, January 27th, 2010

The EU was marginalized amid the realpolitik which dominated at Copenhagen. As a consequence the Copenhagen Accord neither conceptually nor substantively reflected the EU’s negotiating position.

In a recent policy brief (available here) I argue that this failure must lead to a reevaluation of its modus operandi at international negotiations. This is particularly true if Europe wishes to match its rhetoric of leadership on climate protection with real influence.

The extent of the EU’s failure an be gauged from both the extent to which the Copenhagen Accord fell short of the Danish Text which was leaked at the start of the talks, and by the reaction of EU leaders to the Accord. (more…)

Posted in Global Warming, Sustainability | 3 Comments »

Copenhagen – a new framework for climate chaos?

Tuesday, January 5th, 2010

The original intention of Conference of Parties (COP) 15 in Copenhagen was to complete negotiations on a new international agreement on climate change to come into force before 2012. What emerged was a slim three page Copenhagen Accord with a couple of blank appendices.

To the dismay of many EU countries, not even this rather watery three page Accord managed to secure the unanimous approval of the COP. A handful of countries, including Sudan and Saudi Arabia, refused to sign, and the COP thus only succeeded in “taking note” of its contents.

Legally it remains unclear how a non-binding Accord will function. “Takes note of” according to Yvo de Boer, head of the UNFCCC, “is a way of recognizing what is there without going so far as to directly associate yourself with it”. (more…)

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Posted in Global Warming | 2 Comments »

Greens Flavor of the Day in Domestic Climate Policy

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Amid the white noise surrounding last week’s budget, the government made a number of announcements with potentially profound and long-term implications for Irish climate policy. Much as the PD’s allegedly provided the sauce in the meaty Fianna Fail coalition sandwich, it seems that the Greens are now flavor of the day.

The introduction of a carbon tax attracted most comment. A level of €15 per tonne of carbon was chosen. According to Finance Minister, Brian Lenihan: “The yield from the Carbon Tax will be used to boost energy efficiency, to support rural transport and to alleviate fuel poverty. The Carbon Tax will also allow us to maintain or reduce payroll taxes”. (more…)

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Posted in Global Warming, Ireland focus, Sustainability | 7 Comments »

Leaks no Impact on Copenhagen Blueprint

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

The leaking of hacked emails from one of the most highly regarded climate research units was perfectly timed to coincide with the start of the Copenhagen COP. Without entering into the minute details of just what was or was not exposed by the thousands of leaked emails, it is clear the credibility of one of the world’s most respected institutions of climate science has been undermined.

In a sense this is a reality check for anyone who tend to the view that Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is the greatest threat facing humanity. It poses an important question: is the science behind climate change now more open to question as a result? (more…)

Posted in Global Warming | 1 Comment »

Planning for the 21st Century: More Than “Permission to Build”

Monday, December 7th, 2009

Planning as a concept has become synonymous with “permission to build” in this country. As in: “I got ‘the planning’ for the apartments on the flood-plain at the outer-rim of the commuter belt”. The original meaning – taking a strategic approach to the future – is as common to these shores it seems as cautious property development.

Nevertheless, one can only learn from past mistakes.

One thing we know for sure, irrespective of the outcome of Copenhagen, is that Ireland is legally bound to reduce its “domestic sector” emissions 20% on 2005 levels by 2020. Not only is this the most onerous target among EU countries – our high GDP per capita at the time saw to that – it will rise to 30% if an international agreement is reached in Copenhagen (or subsequently) which demands comparable efforts from other developed countries. (more…)

Posted in Global Warming, Ireland focus, Sustainability | 7 Comments »

Copenhagen: As MAD as it seems?

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

“We’re eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked” – these were the words of Secretary of State Dean Rusk at the height of the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962.

It may be abhorrent to some, but despite the high stakes international negotiations often come down to extracting the maximum from your interlocutor.

In the case of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the stakes could not have been higher – President Kennedy had played his hand by blockading Cuba and the Soviet Union had no choice but to back down to avoid Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Analysts have interpreted this as a classic instance of a nuclear game of “Chicken” – Khrushchev was convinced that his choice was between turning his fleet home or nuclear holocaust. (more…)

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Posted in Global Warming, Ireland focus | 16 Comments »